Robert A. Levine 3-13-12
Though the big loser in today’s primaries in Alabama and Mississippi was Newt Gingrich, Tuesday
the 13th wasn’t particularly lucky for Mitt Romney. Santorum was projected as the winner in both Alabama and Mississippi, though both races were fairly close between all three contestants.
The two Republican primaries in the Deep South today had provided Mitt Romney a possibility of winning with little downside in return. The expectations for Romney had been so low at one point, that a decent showing, or a victory in either state, was seen as a possible move forward on the road to the nomination.
Given the large proportion of conservative evangelicals as primary voters, it was believed that Romney’s Mormonism would weigh heavily against him. In addition, his portrayal as the moderate from Massachusetts by his opponents was certainly not going to help him attract voters. However, Romney did have a few advantages in the two contests. The first was that his media machine outspent Rick Santorum by four to one and Newt Gingrich by three to one, constantly filling the airways with advertisements. The second was that Gingrich and Santorum were attacking each other and splitting the most conservative vote. It was supposedly do or die for Gingrich, as he had to salvage at least one, but hopefully two victories.
The way delegates were allocated, gave Romney the opportunity to pick up support even without a win. Mississippi had 40 delegates, of which 25 were to be distributed proportionally to the voting and 12 by victories in the 4 Congressional districts. Alabama had 50 delegates, with 26 at large distributed proportionately and 21 allotted by the 7 Congressional districts. Since every delegate is important on compiling the total needed for the nomination, Romney was not willing to write off the South.
With the realization that he might have an opening in these bastions of conservatism, Romney visited Alabama and Mississippi last week, promoting his bona fides with hearty y’alls and professing his love of grits. Perhaps having friends who are NASCAR owners may have also gained him a few votes. However, the results showed that Romney was still unable to close the deal with conservative voters. But as expected, when all the votes came in, in spite of Santorum’s victories, Romney will have accumulated a considerable number of new delegates as will Gingrich. Will the failure to achieve victory in either state sound the death knell for Gingrich? Stay tuned. There certainly will be pressure from Republican conservatives to have him drop out. Romney, of course, would love to see Gingrich remain in the race as long as possible.
Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com
Though the big loser in today’s primaries in Alabama and Mississippi was Newt Gingrich, Tuesday
The two Republican primaries in the Deep South today had provided Mitt Romney a possibility of winning with little downside in return. The expectations for Romney had been so low at one point, that a decent showing, or a victory in either state, was seen as a possible move forward on the road to the nomination.
Given the large proportion of conservative evangelicals as primary voters, it was believed that Romney’s Mormonism would weigh heavily against him. In addition, his portrayal as the moderate from Massachusetts by his opponents was certainly not going to help him attract voters. However, Romney did have a few advantages in the two contests. The first was that his media machine outspent Rick Santorum by four to one and Newt Gingrich by three to one, constantly filling the airways with advertisements. The second was that Gingrich and Santorum were attacking each other and splitting the most conservative vote. It was supposedly do or die for Gingrich, as he had to salvage at least one, but hopefully two victories.
The way delegates were allocated, gave Romney the opportunity to pick up support even without a win. Mississippi had 40 delegates, of which 25 were to be distributed proportionally to the voting and 12 by victories in the 4 Congressional districts. Alabama had 50 delegates, with 26 at large distributed proportionately and 21 allotted by the 7 Congressional districts. Since every delegate is important on compiling the total needed for the nomination, Romney was not willing to write off the South.
With the realization that he might have an opening in these bastions of conservatism, Romney visited Alabama and Mississippi last week, promoting his bona fides with hearty y’alls and professing his love of grits. Perhaps having friends who are NASCAR owners may have also gained him a few votes. However, the results showed that Romney was still unable to close the deal with conservative voters. But as expected, when all the votes came in, in spite of Santorum’s victories, Romney will have accumulated a considerable number of new delegates as will Gingrich. Will the failure to achieve victory in either state sound the death knell for Gingrich? Stay tuned. There certainly will be pressure from Republican conservatives to have him drop out. Romney, of course, would love to see Gingrich remain in the race as long as possible.
Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com
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