The Best Election Money Can Buy

                                 Robert A. Levine   January 31, 2012

They say that money can’t buy happiness, but the Florida G.O.P. primary shows once again that it can buy elections. Unlike the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, winning Florida with its large and diverse population can not be accomplished by “retail campaigning.” It’s impossible to reach enough voters to make a difference by shaking hands and scheduled appearances. The only way to influence people is through the media, which means the more money, the more exposure.

 After Newt Gingrich’s victory in South Carolina, one would have thought his momentum would have led to a surge in his numbers in Florida, another Southern state that elected a conservative Republican governor and senator in 2010. Indeed, Gingrich was ahead of Romney by 9 percentage points in Florida after his South Carolina win according to the Rasmussen Reports. However, massive spending on advertisements by the Romney campaign and the SuperPACs aligned with Romney, bombarded the airwaves with negative sound bites about Gingrich that transformed the outlook for the two candidates. As of January 29, the same Rasmussen poll had Romney leaving Gingrich in the dust, leading 44% to 28%, a stunning reversal in a short period of time.

But virtually unlimited funding can buy a lot of airtime on radio and TV, allowing Romney to constantly pound away at his opponent. ABC News has estimated that Romney and his SuperPACs have outspent Gingrich and his by a four to one ratio. And total spending by the two campaigns in Florida has been projected at over $22 million.

 On local, network and cable TV stations, Romney ads have been appearing eight to ten times as frequently as those of Gingrich. Day after day, hour after hour, the Romney machine has blasted away at Gingrich, an unending stream of negative messages that have taken a toll on the former House Speaker. Gingrich has been called an influence peddler, his role with Freddie Mac highlighted, the $1.6 million he received in fees contrasted with the housing mess in Florida. His ethics problems while in Congress with the $300,000 fine have also been featured in numerous advertisements. To target the large Latino population, the reports that Gingrich had called Spanish the language of the ghetto were repeatedly emphasized in the Hispanic media. With the barrage of damaging portrayals of Gingrich saturating the airwaves, is it any wonder that his image as a smart electable conservative has been torn to shreds.

 The Romney campaign’s funding advantage has also produced a far superior organization, with many more boots on the ground to do canvassing, make phone calls, hand out flyers, get supporters to the polls, etc.
 The developments in Florida have certainly pacified the Republican establishment that was fearful of Gingrich’s ascendancy. While Romney’s winning of the Republican presidential nomination is not yet a foregone conclusion, he will be well on his way to victory after the Florida primary. When differences among the candidates on important issues are relatively minimal, it’s evident once more that the deciding factor is who has the deepest pockets. Unfortunately, even more money will be spent and more negativity spewed forth when the general election campaign commences.

Resurrecting Democracy

http://www.robertlevinebooks.com/

Mitt and Newt at the CNN GOP Florida Debate

               Robert A. Levine

The increasingly strident tone of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich as they faced off in tonight’s G.O.P. debate in Florida must be considered in the context of the battering each has been receiving from the other’s SuperPAC. Of course, both candidates deny their ability to control these attack ads and criticizes the other’s ads for falsehoods and misstatements of the facts.

 Perhaps desperation reared its head along with an obvious dislike that each candidate feels for the other, allowing them to slash away at each other with no holds barred. While that may make for fine entertainment in the tradition of the World Wrestling Federation, it bodes ill for the Republican candidate who eventually wins the nomination. The contest against President Obama will have to be fought with all the baggage that has been accumulated during the knock-down, dragged-out Republican race.

 The attacks that Mitt and Newt launched against each other’s credibility must also be viewed in the light of the recent NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll that had Newt surging to the front of the pack for GOP primary voters nationwide, at 37% to Mitt’s 28%. Yet among all voters, Newt was swamped by Obama in a head to head match-up (55% to 37%), with Mitt faring considerably better but still losing (49% to 43%). Rick Santorum garnered only 18% of Republican primary voters, with Ron Paul trailing with 12%. However, the latest Rasmussen Reports had Romney ahead over Gingrich among Republicans in Florida by 39% to 31%.
 In tonight’s debate, it appears as if Romney came out more aggressively than in the past and held his own against Gingrich. Romney hit Gingrich as expected over his lobbying for Freddie Mac and its role in the housing collapse. Gingrich as expected denied that he had been a lobbyist and emphasized Romney’s investments in Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Goldman Sachs. He also brought up Romney’s Swiss bank accounts and his investments in the Cayman Islands along with his low tax rate. Romney countered that he was proud of his success and accomplishments. The two men also argued over the immigration issue, with Gingrich attacking Romney as anti-immigration and both claiming each was distorting the other’s stance on immigration. Most of the venom between Romney and Gingrich came out early in the debate and simmered down after Santorum asked that the debate move away from Gingrich’s actions as a lobbyist and Romney’s business success, since there was nothing wrong with either, and there were more important issues to discuss.

Santorum scored his points by hitting both Romney and Gingrich over health care, pointing out the similarities between the program passed in Massachusetts under Romney’s leadership and Obama’s federal plan. He declared that Gingrich had supported a health care mandate in the past and that neither Romney nor Gingrich could contest Obama over health care because of their past actions.

 Ron Paul kept emphasizing the need for the U.S. not to interfere in the affairs of other countries, to shrink the federal government and strengthen the dollar. He spoke of medicine being better prior to the establishment of Medicare, blaming the government for the high cost of health care.

 I would call tonight’s performances by Romney and Gingrich a tie, perhaps even giving Romney a slight edge. (Romney’s new debate coach can be proud.) Santorum was able to get across his passion, but did not articulate his positions as well as Romney and Gingrich. Paul’s vision seemed anchored in the past, without a way to move the country forward. Romney needed this performance to cement his Florida lead, but there are still five days left to the actual primary where things could change.

 Resurrecting Democracy
http://www.robertlevinebooks.com/