Romney's Southern Exposure- Did He Get Burned?

                        Robert A. Levine    3-13-12

Though the big loser in today’s primaries in Alabama and Mississippi was Newt Gingrich, Tuesday the 13^th wasn’t particularly lucky for Mitt Romney. Santorum was projected as the winner in both Alabama and Mississippi, though both races were fairly close between all three contestants.

The two Republican primaries in the Deep South today had provided Mitt Romney a possibility of winning with little downside in return. The expectations for Romney had been so low at one point, that a decent showing, or a victory in either state, was seen as a possible move forward on the road to the nomination.

 Given the large proportion of conservative evangelicals as primary voters, it was believed that Romney’s Mormonism would weigh heavily against him. In addition, his portrayal as the moderate from Massachusetts by his opponents was certainly not going to help him attract voters. However, Romney did have a few advantages in the two contests. The first was that his media machine outspent Rick Santorum by four to one and Newt Gingrich by three to one, constantly filling the airways with advertisements. The second was that Gingrich and Santorum were attacking each other and splitting the most conservative vote. It was supposedly do or die for Gingrich, as he had to salvage at least one, but hopefully two victories.

The way delegates were allocated, gave Romney the opportunity to pick up support even without a win. Mississippi had 40 delegates, of which 25 were to be distributed proportionally to the voting and 12 by victories in the 4 Congressional districts. Alabama had 50 delegates, with 26 at large distributed proportionately and 21 allotted by the 7 Congressional districts. Since every delegate is important on compiling the total needed for the nomination, Romney was not willing to write off the South.

 With the realization that he might have an opening in these bastions of conservatism, Romney visited Alabama and Mississippi last week, promoting his bona fides with hearty y’alls and professing his love of grits. Perhaps having friends who are NASCAR owners may have also gained him a few votes. However, the results showed that Romney was still unable to close the deal with conservative voters. But as expected, when all the votes came in, in spite of Santorum’s victories, Romney will have accumulated a considerable number of new delegates as will Gingrich. Will the failure to achieve victory in either state sound the death knell for Gingrich? Stay tuned. There certainly will be pressure from Republican conservatives to have him drop out. Romney, of course, would love to see Gingrich remain in the race as long as possible.

 Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com

Super PAC Tuesday

            Robert A. Levine

It’s called Super Tuesday because of the large number of delegates for the presidential nominating convention up for grabs in the Republican primaries.  437 delegates were at stake today in ten states scattered among every region and time zone.

Because of the number of states involved, retail politics was not at a premium in these primaries, as it’s impossible to schedule enough personal appearances and shake enough hands to connect with the electorate. That’s why a more appropriate label would be Super PAC Tuesday, since the primary in  Ohio, the most important state, was probably decided by media buys and repetitive advertising, which played a major role everywhere. And the candidates’ Super PACs are the organizations with the financial heft and advertising savvy that can sway voters to support their candidates through TV and radio ads. The campaigns, of course, also contributed money to the political dialogue, but the Super PACs dominated the discourse.

The Super PACs tend to favor negative advertising and attack ads against the opposing candidates, which seem to influence voters more than those that build up their own nominees. The pro-Romney Super PAC, Restore Our Future, had the most cash to spend, and dispensed it liberally (if a forbidden word can be used). This Super PAC has a list of donors that sounds like a who’s who of billionaires and made media buys all around the country.

Gingrich’s Super PAC, Winning Our Future, only appears to have one billionaire on board, Sheldon Adelson, who has contributed tens of millions of dollars. Gingrich concentrated his efforts on his home state of Georgia and will continue what might be considered a southern strategy in the future, trying to keep neighboring states in his camp.

Santorum competed all over, but particularly focused on Ohio, which was really Super Tuesday biggest prize. Santorum’s Red, White and Blue Super PAC, was largely funded by Foster Freiss, an affluent conservative who likes Santorum’s stands on the social issues.

Ron Paul saw his best chance for a victory in Alaska, where his libertarian views have gotten some traction.
One large state, Virginia was really not in play, with the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns failing to get their candidates on the ballot. Georgia appeared to be in Gingrich’s pocket from the outset, with Massachusetts in Romney’s. Whoever won the popular vote in each state, the formula for allocating delegates varied, with some states having winner take all while others doing it proportionately.

Early returns showed Romney with victories in Vermont, Massachusetts, and Virginia, with Gingrich on top in Georgia. No surprises there. Santorum won Tennessee and Oklahoma where 70% of the primary voters described themselves as evangelicals, along with North Dakota. No real surprises there. With a neck and neck battle throughout the evening, Romney finally pulled ahead in Ohio by a thin margin, but by 11:30 EST his victory was notconfirmed. His strength in Ohio was in the urban and suburban areas, while Santorum won the rural parts of the state. However, if Gingrich had been out of the mix, Santorum would have been easily victorious in Ohio. Romney also won in Idaho by what appears to be a significant margin.

No matter how Alaska plays out, at the end of the night, Romney will be far ahead in the total delegate count. His Super PAC and organizational prowess have been delivering for him. Money has long been known as the mother’s milk of politics with Super PACs now functioning as the cash cows for candidates. It can be anticipated that obtaining the nomination and winning the general election itself will depend to a major degree on how much milk the Super PACs will be able to provide for their candidates.

Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com

The Hidden Meaning of Severely Conservative

                                    Robert A. Levine   2-15-12

Mitt Romney is severely conservative. He announced it at a CPAC meeting last week, perhaps trying to convince other conservatives that his conservatism was unbounded. In that context, it was an unusual use of the word ‘severe’ and one wonders whether there might have been a hidden meaning in that statement.

Webster’s 20^th century dictionary provides several definitions for severe. 1) harsh or strict, unsparing, stern. 2) serious, grave, forbidding 3) conforming strictly to a rule or standard. 4) extremely plain or simple. 5) keen, violent, intense. 6) difficult, rigorous. Of all these definitions, the third may have been what Romney was trying to convey- his beliefs and actions conformed strictly to conservative standards. Or not.

Severe is generally employed to describe illnesses or injuries and perhaps this might be the covert subtext of what Romney was saying. He perceives conservatism as an illness and he’s severely infected with this disease. Of course, there’s no way of knowing whether this view of conservatism is conscious or buried deeply within his unconscious. It might even be seen as a psychosomatic condition or a mental health problem. We must also keep in mind that the Massachusetts Romney once tried to convince voters in that state that he was a moderate, or even a bit liberal, which is another form of illness. Could he possibly be harboring two different diseases, with each separately wreaking havoc upon his immune system? After all, antibodies to liberalism have no effect upon conservatism and vice versa. (We can dismiss the idea that Romney was using severe as a synonym for bad, such as having ‘a severe chest cold.’ It’s doubtful that Romney would want to voters to think that he was a bad conservative.)

Romney may have also been trying to evoke sympathy from Republican primary voters by telling them about his affliction. However, it’s not clear whether his conservatism is a chronic illness or an acute problem that will remit spontaneously or be cured with the proper treatment. Since we still see him on the campaign trail, we can assume that his health has not deteriorated to a point where he’s in extremis from his conservatism.

We will follow his future course carefully, hoping that he will be indeed be cured and be able to reach the healthy state of centrism. Unfortunately, this will not help him in his attempt to woo the Republican base, many of whom are afflicted with Romney’s current illness.

Resurrecting Democracy
www.robertlevinebooks.com

The Best Election Money Can Buy

                                 Robert A. Levine   January 31, 2012

They say that money can’t buy happiness, but the Florida G.O.P. primary shows once again that it can buy elections. Unlike the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, winning Florida with its large and diverse population can not be accomplished by “retail campaigning.” It’s impossible to reach enough voters to make a difference by shaking hands and scheduled appearances. The only way to influence people is through the media, which means the more money, the more exposure.

 After Newt Gingrich’s victory in South Carolina, one would have thought his momentum would have led to a surge in his numbers in Florida, another Southern state that elected a conservative Republican governor and senator in 2010. Indeed, Gingrich was ahead of Romney by 9 percentage points in Florida after his South Carolina win according to the Rasmussen Reports. However, massive spending on advertisements by the Romney campaign and the SuperPACs aligned with Romney, bombarded the airwaves with negative sound bites about Gingrich that transformed the outlook for the two candidates. As of January 29, the same Rasmussen poll had Romney leaving Gingrich in the dust, leading 44% to 28%, a stunning reversal in a short period of time.

But virtually unlimited funding can buy a lot of airtime on radio and TV, allowing Romney to constantly pound away at his opponent. ABC News has estimated that Romney and his SuperPACs have outspent Gingrich and his by a four to one ratio. And total spending by the two campaigns in Florida has been projected at over $22 million.

 On local, network and cable TV stations, Romney ads have been appearing eight to ten times as frequently as those of Gingrich. Day after day, hour after hour, the Romney machine has blasted away at Gingrich, an unending stream of negative messages that have taken a toll on the former House Speaker. Gingrich has been called an influence peddler, his role with Freddie Mac highlighted, the $1.6 million he received in fees contrasted with the housing mess in Florida. His ethics problems while in Congress with the $300,000 fine have also been featured in numerous advertisements. To target the large Latino population, the reports that Gingrich had called Spanish the language of the ghetto were repeatedly emphasized in the Hispanic media. With the barrage of damaging portrayals of Gingrich saturating the airwaves, is it any wonder that his image as a smart electable conservative has been torn to shreds.

 The Romney campaign’s funding advantage has also produced a far superior organization, with many more boots on the ground to do canvassing, make phone calls, hand out flyers, get supporters to the polls, etc.
 The developments in Florida have certainly pacified the Republican establishment that was fearful of Gingrich’s ascendancy. While Romney’s winning of the Republican presidential nomination is not yet a foregone conclusion, he will be well on his way to victory after the Florida primary. When differences among the candidates on important issues are relatively minimal, it’s evident once more that the deciding factor is who has the deepest pockets. Unfortunately, even more money will be spent and more negativity spewed forth when the general election campaign commences.

Resurrecting Democracy

http://www.robertlevinebooks.com/

Mitt and Newt at the CNN GOP Florida Debate

               Robert A. Levine

The increasingly strident tone of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich as they faced off in tonight’s G.O.P. debate in Florida must be considered in the context of the battering each has been receiving from the other’s SuperPAC. Of course, both candidates deny their ability to control these attack ads and criticizes the other’s ads for falsehoods and misstatements of the facts.

 Perhaps desperation reared its head along with an obvious dislike that each candidate feels for the other, allowing them to slash away at each other with no holds barred. While that may make for fine entertainment in the tradition of the World Wrestling Federation, it bodes ill for the Republican candidate who eventually wins the nomination. The contest against President Obama will have to be fought with all the baggage that has been accumulated during the knock-down, dragged-out Republican race.

 The attacks that Mitt and Newt launched against each other’s credibility must also be viewed in the light of the recent NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll that had Newt surging to the front of the pack for GOP primary voters nationwide, at 37% to Mitt’s 28%. Yet among all voters, Newt was swamped by Obama in a head to head match-up (55% to 37%), with Mitt faring considerably better but still losing (49% to 43%). Rick Santorum garnered only 18% of Republican primary voters, with Ron Paul trailing with 12%. However, the latest Rasmussen Reports had Romney ahead over Gingrich among Republicans in Florida by 39% to 31%.
 In tonight’s debate, it appears as if Romney came out more aggressively than in the past and held his own against Gingrich. Romney hit Gingrich as expected over his lobbying for Freddie Mac and its role in the housing collapse. Gingrich as expected denied that he had been a lobbyist and emphasized Romney’s investments in Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Goldman Sachs. He also brought up Romney’s Swiss bank accounts and his investments in the Cayman Islands along with his low tax rate. Romney countered that he was proud of his success and accomplishments. The two men also argued over the immigration issue, with Gingrich attacking Romney as anti-immigration and both claiming each was distorting the other’s stance on immigration. Most of the venom between Romney and Gingrich came out early in the debate and simmered down after Santorum asked that the debate move away from Gingrich’s actions as a lobbyist and Romney’s business success, since there was nothing wrong with either, and there were more important issues to discuss.

Santorum scored his points by hitting both Romney and Gingrich over health care, pointing out the similarities between the program passed in Massachusetts under Romney’s leadership and Obama’s federal plan. He declared that Gingrich had supported a health care mandate in the past and that neither Romney nor Gingrich could contest Obama over health care because of their past actions.

 Ron Paul kept emphasizing the need for the U.S. not to interfere in the affairs of other countries, to shrink the federal government and strengthen the dollar. He spoke of medicine being better prior to the establishment of Medicare, blaming the government for the high cost of health care.

 I would call tonight’s performances by Romney and Gingrich a tie, perhaps even giving Romney a slight edge. (Romney’s new debate coach can be proud.) Santorum was able to get across his passion, but did not articulate his positions as well as Romney and Gingrich. Paul’s vision seemed anchored in the past, without a way to move the country forward. Romney needed this performance to cement his Florida lead, but there are still five days left to the actual primary where things could change.

 Resurrecting Democracy
http://www.robertlevinebooks.com/